Xiantan shares (002746) 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarterly report comments: volume and price rise, profit rises

Xiantan shares (002746) 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarterly report comments: volume and price rise, profit rises

Price increase, increase, cost control, the company’s profit increased rapidly in 18Q4 and 19Q1.

Taking into account the limited increase in the supply of white chicken, it is expected that chicken prices in 19Q2 are expected to remain high, and the company’s profit promotion will continue to increase.

We raise our 2019/20 profit forecast, raise our target price to 41 yuan, and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Increasing prices to control costs, earnings in 2018 increased nearly three times.

In 2018, the company achieved revenue of 25.

800 million (19% increase), profit 400 million (294% increase).

The increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in chicken meat sales (same increase of 6).

8%), increased chicken mortality (13% increase).

Profit growth is also affected by the company’s decline in chicken costs.

In 2018, the company’s gross cost of chicken products also decreased by 2% to 7052 yuan / ton, and the single feather cost decreased by 0.

02 yuan to 0.

46 yuan.

It is estimated that the company will breed about 1 chicken in slaughter in 2018.

200 million birds, only about 3 profit.

3 yuan.

Among them, Q4 slaughtered 33 million birds, and the average profit was only about 5.

5 yuan.

The company plans to pay 5 yuan for every 10 shares.

The performance was in line with expectations.

The chicken price is strong, and the profit in 19Q1 has accelerated.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company realized revenue7.

300 million (62% increase), profit 1.

600 million (4 times the same increase).

Increasing chicken prices was the top priority for the company’s 19Q1 revenue and profit growth.

It is estimated that the company raised about 25 million chickens in slaughter in 19Q1, with an average profit of only 6.

3 yuan.

The performance was in line with expectations.
Supply growth is limited, and chicken prices in 19Q2 are expected to remain high.

Affected by the high price of chickens, the phenomenon of moulting has increased. The White Chicken Association has monitored the parents’ production inventories of commercial enterprises, and the sales of commercial chickens have shown an upward trend since March.

Considering that the supply of poultry meat in 19Q2 is mainly determined by the sales of parent generation in the second half of 2018, and the sales of parent generation in the second half of 2018 also decreased by 9%, we expect that the growth of white chicken supply in 19Q2 will be limited.

At the same time, 天津夜网 considering that the bird flu vaccine has been added to the waiver and poultry meat consumption is gradually recovering, it is expected that chicken meat prices in 19Q2 are expected to remain high.

The company expects a profit of 19Q2 or a high of 2.

9-3.

5 times to 2.

200 million-2.

600 million.

We estimate that 19Q2 companies or breeding slaughter broilers will be 38 million to 40 million birds, and a single bird will be profitable about 6-6.

5 yuan. The contraction of pork supply or high consumption of chicken meat is expected to continue the boom in the poultry chain.

Domestic meat consumption shows a structure of about 5: 2: 2: 1 for pork: chicken: fish: beef and mutton.

Affected by African swine fever, domestic swine throughput is accelerating. The current rate of production capacity reduction has reached 19%, and it may reach 28% or more in the future.

The contraction of pork supply is expected to drive high growth in chicken consumption, and the boom in the poultry chain may continue until 2020.

Risk factors: Chicken prices are not up to expectations, outbreaks, food safety incidents.

Investment suggestion: The company’s broiler slaughter scale is expected to maintain a growth of more than 5% from 2019 to 2020.

Taking into account that chicken prices have risen more than expected, the EPS forecast for 2019/20 is raised to 2.

75/3.

24 yuan (was 1).

48/0.

97 yuan), plus the EPS forecast for 2021 is 1.

77 yuan, 15 times for 2019, target price raised to 41 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.